Canada has now seen 10 straight quarters where affordability remains a real concern, and as a Toronto-based realtor who has guided clients through all market cycles, I’m seeing firsthand how this reality is shaping decisions in the GTA and beyond. With economists no longer counting on mortgage rate relief to boost affordability, the focus is firmly on home prices and income growth as the drivers to watch. Over the next year, most experts anticipate mortgage rates will either hold or edge up, so any improvement in affordability will depend on price moderation. Slower population growth may help keep demand – and thus prices – in check, while a stronger labour market is expected to support household incomes. It’s important to remember that every market tells a different story right now: the dynamics in Toronto and Vancouver stand in stark contrast to what buyers and sellers are experiencing in Calgary and Edmonton. While a better job market can help, real progress on affordability will require a sustained slowdown in price increases. With hundreds of successful transactions behind me, I stay focused on market specifics to ensure my clients are making informed choices, no matter where they’re looking in Ontario.
Category: Latest Posts
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Ontario Tax Relief Spurs New Homes
It’s striking to see just how much taxes and government charges have shaped the cost of new homes across Ontario—on average, they’ve accounted for about 36% of the price, meaning more than a third of what buyers pay goes well beyond the actual construction. Development charges alone have often surged past $100,000 per single-family home in various municipalities, and with other levies, some buyers have faced costs up to $200,000 before even stepping inside.
Recently, a joint federal-provincial initiative made it possible for municipalities to reduce residential development charges by 30%-50% (or more) in return for funding, provided these cuts are held for at least three years. After the HST reduction, Ontario saw a remarkable increase: 8,400 new home sales in the first three months compared to 3,600 in the same period each year before.
As someone who has guided clients through hundreds of transactions in Toronto and across Ontario, I’ve seen firsthand how these policy shifts can transform both affordability and opportunity. Making the HST rebate and lower development charges permanent could offer lasting certainty for buyers, builders, and municipalities alike—helping to ease the path to homeownership and expand supply for our communities.
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Toronto Starts Fall Short of Target
Recent housing start numbers in Toronto show a 10% decrease compared to last year—a clear indication that construction activity has slowed down in our city’s core. At present, Toronto is tracking 37 building permits for 6,600 condominium apartment units that have yet to break ground. While this may seem concerning, it’s important to remember that many of these projects are backed by pre-sales completed well before the current market slowdown. Housing-start data often lags behind real-time market shifts, since large-scale developments must first pass through planning, pre-sales, and permit stages before actual construction begins. As someone who closely monitors the real estate landscape across Toronto and the GTA, I know these numbers might understate the momentum still building behind the scenes. Some of the permitted condo units in the pipeline are likely to move forward as market conditions evolve. Keeping a close eye on these trends is key for anyone considering a purchase, sale, or investment in Toronto’s dynamic market.
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Home affordability improves in 10 of 13 Canadian cities in July
July brought some welcome news for buyers across Canada, with home affordability improving in 10 out of 13 major cities, thanks largely to declining home prices. Notably, Vancouver saw the most significant drop in required income. With mortgage rates edging down and some discounted fixed-rate options now available below 4%, the market is opening up opportunities for those considering a move or investment. As someone who has guided hundreds of clients through the nuances of the GTA and surrounding Ontario markets, I always keep a close eye on these shifts to ensure my clients have the latest insights for a smooth, timely experience.
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New report suggests HST rebate continues to boost single-family new home sales across GTA
July brought a remarkable shift in the GTA’s new home market, with single-family home sales tripling to 781 units—an impressive surge largely credited to the ongoing impact of the HST rebate. It’s interesting to note that while single-family prices dipped by 8.5% to $1.36M, condo sales saw only a slight uptick, with prices nudging up 2.5% to $1.05M. Inventory now stands at 18,546 units, offering a broad range of opportunities across the region. Having worked with buyers and investors throughout Toronto and beyond—from Durham to Ottawa—I see firsthand how programs like the HST rebate can open doors for families and investors alike, especially when navigating a shifting market. My focus continues to be on guiding clients to well-timed, informed decisions, so they can make the most of these evolving market conditions.
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Canada Data Week Sharpens Housing Outlook
It’s been a pivotal week for Canada’s housing landscape, with fresh data on inflation, housing, and trade all in the spotlight. As a Toronto-based Realtor with a track record across the GTA and beyond, I pay close attention to these shifts—because what happens at the national level inevitably shapes our local markets. Early Q3 numbers on inflation and home sales are fueling debate about whether the central bank could raise rates again or maintain its current stance through 2027. Notably, a major Real Estate group has updated its 2026 forecast: instead of the modest growth previously expected, national sales are now projected to edge lower this year. Meanwhile, a mid-Q3 deadline could see nearly US$20B of Canadian exports facing up to 50% US tariffs if negotiations don’t resolve key issues. We’re also watching new data on housing starts, retail sales, and loan officer sentiment, all of which will give us more insight into market momentum and construction activity. Staying informed on these developments helps me guide clients through changing conditions—whether you’re buying, selling, or investing in Toronto or across Ontario.
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Ontario New Housing Shows Optimism
Recent developments in Ontario’s housing market are giving us some cautious optimism. We've seen an uptick in home sales and a steady increase in the number of new homes proposed and enrolled—these are early indicators that builders are feeling more confident about starting new projects. As someone who monitors construction plans closely, I know that enrolment activity often signals what’s coming next in the market.
That said, the broader picture still has its challenges. Residential real estate insolvencies remain higher than usual, a reminder that buyers need to stay alert to ongoing risks. For buyers of new freehold homes, there’s an important step you can take: by signing up within 45 days, you can boost your deposit protection to as much as $100,000, and get earlier access to warranty guidance—an extra layer of security I always recommend for my clients.
Looking ahead, there’s hope for a stronger rebound this year in Ontario: more quality homes, greater affordability, and strong protections for buyers. My experience across the GTA and beyond has shown me the value of staying proactive and informed, especially in a market that’s always evolving.
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Some of the hottest real estate markets in the Greater Toronto Area
The Greater Toronto Area real estate landscape is always evolving, and the latest numbers highlight some interesting shifts. Prices have edged down 4.5% year-over-year, bringing the average home price to about $1 million. Sales activity also saw a 6.8% decrease, with active listings dropping 22.3% and new listings down 17.3%. Despite these declines, homes are moving faster, especially as inventory tightens and buyers look beyond the city's core to outer municipalities. Having worked with clients across Toronto, Durham, York, Peel, and beyond, I've seen firsthand how changing supply and buyer preferences are shaping opportunities in both established and emerging neighborhoods. My approach remains focused on navigating these trends to help you make informed decisions, whether you're buying, selling, or investing in the GTA real estate market.
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Some GTA homes sold in under two weeks last month
Homes in Alderwood, Etobicoke, sold fastest in the GTA in July, averaging 10 days on the market, while Chaplin Estates in Old Toronto had the slowest sales at 77 days. Established, family-friendly neighborhoods with good transit and schools saw quicker sales, especially single-family homes. Other fast-selling areas included Palmer, Uptown Ajax, and Dovercourt Park. Buyer interest in the GTA declined slightly, with many first-time buyers.
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Happy Labour Day!
Labour Day in Canada marks a well-earned break celebrating workers and the unofficial end of summer, when everyone suddenly remembers all the things they meant to do in August.
It’s the last big excuse for barbecues, lake trips, and squeezing in one more summer adventure before routines and school schedules take over again.
Stores and sidewalks feel a little calmer, while patios and parks get their final big rush of summer energy and “just one more weekend” vibes.
Happy Labour Day! Wishing you a relaxed, fun-filled long weekend with good food, no alarms, and maximum enjoyment before fall shows up uninvited.
